top of page

ANALYSES
I conduct analyses into opportunities and threats identified as possible risks; using quantitative data and qualitative research reports or expert opinion to rate and interrogate risks. My analyses deal specifically with government policies, actions and institutions.


Municipal By-elections, Wards Won (2021-May 2026)
If I consider the results of wards won in by-elections since the 2021 Local Government elections, it seems to me that the ANC performance is declining, but not collapsing, and that of the DA stagnating, but declining in areas required to maintain the party's governance control over the Western Cape, and its competitiveness in the Northern Cape.

Frans Minnaar
3 days ago3 min read


Results of Municipal By-elections: 2021-May 2026
I have done an analysis of the results of municipal by-elections over the period 2021 (the previous Local Government elections), until May 2026. (There may be a few by-elections to come, but not many, because the cycle is about to conclude and close in preparation for the coming 2026 Local Government selections).

Frans Minnaar
Jun 293 min read


Results of municipal by-elections: 2021-February 2026
The ANC performed worse in 46 by-elections at the time of these elections, compared with the party’s performance in those wards during the 2021 local government elections. The DA performed better in a net gain of 9 wards, the EFF performed better in 6, the PA in 16 and the IFP in 23. Other parties and independents performed worse in 13 wards.

Frans Minnaar
May 197 min read


The Baseline: Economic growth analysed
Over the period 1980 to 2025, the median annual unemployment rate was 22,2%, Over the period 1961 to 1993, the median annual unemployment rate was 14,8%, over the period 1994 to 2025, 23,3% and from 2008 to 2025, 25,8%.

Frans Minnaar
Mar 196 min read


'n Ontleding van ekonomiese groei
Die artikel bevat 'n ontleding van ekonomiese groei in Suid-Afrika oor die tydperk 1961 tot 2026.

Frans Minnaar
Jan 1415 min read


The United States National Security Strategy & Global Power Relations
The US National Security Strategy, published in November 2025, set out its geopolitical aims and strategies. It is in line with Trump’s expressed worldviews, made clear on numerous occasions during the last decade of his presence in United States politics. Under his leadership, the United States will act accordingly, regardless of whether he and his administration is blamed of breaking international law, or regardless of how reprehensible many may find it.

Frans Minnaar
Jan 515 min read


Public Service Wage Bill
The South African government’s staff establishment consist of sixteen salary levels, or grades. The article contains an analysis of the wage bill of the South African public sector.

Frans Minnaar
Dec 6, 20255 min read


Comments in Respect of the Mangaung Municipality 2024-25 IDP & Budget
This comment has been prepared in response to a public invitation of the Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality for submissions in respect of its 20024-205 IDP and budget.
My first question is: If I read the IDP published in the city’s website, will I be able to be informed about the plans of the municipality for my area (and ward) during 2024-2025? The answer is negative (except for selective projects).

Frans Minnaar
Apr 16, 20255 min read


IDP Risks
The analysis makes an analysis of the effectiveness of Integrated Development Planning as the prescribed planning system for South African municipalities. A total of twelve (12) considerations were included in the analysis. These considerations are focused on the outcomes that an Integrated Development Plan is supposed to promote (or achieve) in local government.

Frans Minnaar
Apr 2, 20257 min read
bottom of page