Municipal By-elections, Wards Won (2021-May 2026)

Over the period 2021 (the last Local Government elections), to the end of May 2026, the ANC has won 222 by-elections in wards across the country. This is compared to the 268 wards they have won in the 2021 Local Government elections, in the wards where by-elections have been conducted since then. This is a decline of 46 wards. This represents a decline of -17,16%.

The DA has won 107 wards during the 2021 LG elections, in wards where by-elections have since been conducted, and 114 during these by-elections. This represents an improvement of 7 wards. This represents gains of 6,54%.

The MKP (uMkhonto weSizwe Party) has not existed at the time of the 2021 local government elections. They have since won 8 municipal by-elections, which, I think, is disappointing to the party.

In wards where by-elections have been conducted since, the EFF has won 4 during the 2021 Local Government elections, and 10 since. This represents an improvement of 150% on the party’s 2021 performance, in wards where by-elections have been conducted.

In the case of the Patriotic Alliance, the party has won 22 wards in by-elections since the 2021 local government elections. In wards where by-elections have since been conducted, the party has won 4 during the 2021 elections. This represents a stunning improvement of 450%.

The IFP has won 24 wards where by-elections have since been held during the 2021 local government elections, and 48 since. This is a 100% improvement.

In the case of other parties or independents, there has been a sharp decline; from 24 wards during the 2021 local government elections in wards where by-elected have been conducted, to only 9 since.

My conclusions?

There is an undeniable persistent decline in ANC support, but the party has not collapse, as is sometimes projected in the media. In some provinces and areas of the country, the party’s performance is still strong. In wards where the party has won by-elections, the party’s performance has declined from 59,02 of the votes, to 58,96 in by-elections between 2021 to May 2026.

The DA has a practical problem, vested in the nature of the South African local government election system, which is that the party won by-elections in areas where it has been traditionally strong, with increased majorities. The average percentage of votes in wards during by-elections since 2021 has been 68,2%, compared to 60,66% during the 2021 elections, in wards where by-elections have been conducted. However, the party has won only 7 wards. This is because, outside its traditional support base, where it enjoys immense support, often exceeding 80% of the votes, the party has gradually started loosing elections with small, narrow margins in wards where they are not enjoying “overwhelming” support.

The MKP has performed worse then anticipated, considering its performance in the 2024 national and provincial elections. The party’s performance in KwaZulu-Natal has been below expectations (and it was often outperformed by especially the IFP). Outside this province, its performance has been weak.

The PA has done excellently in the Western Cape rural areas and in the Northern Cape (and, to a lesser degree, in Gauteng). The party will not make a national impression, because its support base is almost exclusively vested in the Coloured communities of the Northern – and Western Cape. However, the party is an extreme threat to the DA, and its ability to retain control over the Western Cape and gain governance over the Northern Cape.

The PA’s average percentage of votes in wards it has won in by-election since 2021, was 32,04% at the time of the 2021 LG elections, and 48,16% in by-elections since. However, these percentages almost illustrate the point made earlier about the DA’s systemic problem in ward-based elections: In multiple wards previously won with small majorities by the DA, the PA has flipped the coin (the party is now beating the DA with small margins, but won the wards).

The IFP has improved its performance in wards it has won in by-elections since 2021, from 51,105% of the votes during the 2021 elections, to 54,148% in by-elections since. However, its performance is almost exclusively limited to KwaZulu-Natal.

Image source: 123RF

Data obtained from the website of the ICC.