If I consider the results of wards won in by-elections since the 2021 Local Government elections, it seems to me that the ANC performance is declining, but not collapsing, and that of the DA stagnating, but declining in areas required to maintain the party's governance control over the Western Cape, and its competitiveness in the Northern Cape.

I have done an analysis of the results of municipal by-elections over the period 2021 (the previous Local Government elections), until May 2026. (There may be a few by-elections to come, but not many, because the cycle is about to conclude and close in preparation for the coming 2026 Local Government selections).

The ANC performed worse in 46 by-elections at the time of these elections, compared with the party’s performance in those wards during the 2021 local government elections. The DA performed better in a net gain of 9 wards, the EFF performed better in 6, the PA in 16 and the IFP in 23. Other parties and independents performed worse in 13 wards.